If you're working a job that pays $40K per year after taxes, and you figure your real living expenses to be about $30K per year, then you've got a replenishable bankroll of about $10K per year. It may only be $833 per month, but in fact, you can play as if you've got $10,000 behind you, provided you strictly adhere to never losing more than your monthly replenishable amount. This means that in many months you will be put out of commission at the tables very quickly due to negative but entirely normal fluctuations. But you'll compensate for that when you win inordinate amounts, wins that never would have been possible on an $833 bankroll.
Just about every book on card counting addresses the bet-sizing question from the perspective of the player who is on a fixed bankroll, even though most players, including many semi-pros and serious high-stakes players, operate from replenishable funds. If you have an annual replenishable bankroll of $ 10,000, you will never make it as a card counter if you always play as if you have a total bankroll of $833, since that is the actual amount in your pocket. If you're going to make it as a counter at a serious level of play, then you will have to have the guts to bang out some bets that could easily break you on that trip if the flux go against you, and you will have to have the discipline to quit, on that trip, when that occurs.
My advice for a player on a replenishable bankroll is very simple. Always play as if your total bankroll is the annual replenishable amount, and play at the one-quarter-Kelly level. This boils down to a fairly simple chart: The percentage of your replenishable bank that you bet is always one-quarter of your % advantage (or true edge). Whether you use the Red Seven Count, the Hi-Lo, or the Zen Count, it looks like this:
Annual Replenishable Bankroll
True Edge $2.000 $5.000 $10.000 $20.000
1% $5 $12 $25 $50
2% $10 $25 $50 $100
3% $15 $35 $75 $150
4% $20 $50 $100 $200
This means that if you've got that $10K replenishable bankroll, you can actually bet from $25 to $100 on your high counts, even though you may not be going into the actual game with much more than $800 bucks in your pocket. When you've only got $800+, bets of $100 are close to suicidal. What if you have to double down?
What if you have to split, and re-split, and then double after you split? You can lose half or more of your trip bankroll on a single round of play! Mitigating this risk is the fact that 4% advantages very rarely occur. You won't often place $100 bets in today's blackjack games. But when these strong advantages do occur, then bite the bullet and bang it out. This is no time to be chicken; these are the types of opportunities that you're looking for as a card counter. If you lose your trip bank, so it goes. If you've got enough hours at the tables, maybe the casino will comp you to dinner. There's always next month, and in the long run, you'll get them more than they'll get you on these advantage plays. You either have the heart for this game or you don't.
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