If you're working a job that pays $40K per year after taxes, and you figure your real living expenses to be about $30K per year, then you've got a replenishable bankroll of about $10K per year. It may only be $833 per month, but in fact, you can play as if you've got $10,000 behind you, provided you strictly adhere to never losing more than your monthly replenishable amount. This means that in many months you will be put out of commission at the tables very quickly due to negative but entirely normal fluctuations. But you'll compensate for that when you win inordinate amounts, wins that never would have been possible on an $833 bankroll.
Just about every book on card counting addresses the bet-sizing question from the perspective of the player who is on a fixed bankroll, even though most players, including many semi-pros and serious high-stakes players, operate from replenishable funds. If you have an annual replenishable bankroll of $ 10,000, you will never make it as a card counter if you always play as if you have a total bankroll of $833, since that is the actual amount in your pocket. If you're going to make it as a counter at a serious level of play, then you will have to have the guts to bang out some bets that could easily break you on that trip if the flux go against you, and you will have to have the discipline to quit, on that trip, when that occurs.
My advice for a player on a replenishable bankroll is very simple. Always play as if your total bankroll is the annual replenishable amount, and play at the one-quarter-Kelly level. This boils down to a fairly simple chart: The percentage of your replenishable bank that you bet is always one-quarter of your % advantage (or true edge). Whether you use the Red Seven Count, the Hi-Lo, or the Zen Count, it looks like this:
Annual Replenishable Bankroll
True Edge $2.000 $5.000 $10.000 $20.000
1% $5 $12 $25 $50
2% $10 $25 $50 $100
3% $15 $35 $75 $150
4% $20 $50 $100 $200
This means that if you've got that $10K replenishable bankroll, you can actually bet from $25 to $100 on your high counts, even though you may not be going into the actual game with much more than $800 bucks in your pocket. When you've only got $800+, bets of $100 are close to suicidal. What if you have to double down?
What if you have to split, and re-split, and then double after you split? You can lose half or more of your trip bankroll on a single round of play! Mitigating this risk is the fact that 4% advantages very rarely occur. You won't often place $100 bets in today's blackjack games. But when these strong advantages do occur, then bite the bullet and bang it out. This is no time to be chicken; these are the types of opportunities that you're looking for as a card counter. If you lose your trip bank, so it goes. If you've got enough hours at the tables, maybe the casino will comp you to dinner. There's always next month, and in the long run, you'll get them more than they'll get you on these advantage plays. You either have the heart for this game or you don't.
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We still haven't answered the question that is the title of this chapter. Most players would consider it a waste of time to make $10 bets when they arrive at a casino with $2,500 to play with. In fact, very few players would do this—if you're going to gamble with that amount of money, you generally want to see a meaningful result. My ultra-conservative betting advice above, though, assumes that you have a fixed bankroll of funds that are not easily replenishable. For most players, that's not the case.
A replenishable bankroll has no fixed dollar amount, and most players, in fact, play on replenishable bankrolls. There are various common types of replenishable bankrolls, the most common being a job. If you are currently earning an income from some non-gambling source, and some portion of this income is expendable, in the sense that it is money you would normally spend on recreational pursuits, hobbies, entertainment—your disposable income money—then so long as you stay employed, that's your replenishable bank. If you deliver pizza for a living, then this bankroll may be less than $100 per month, if you're a dentist, it may be quite a few thousand dollars more. Much depends on your lifestyle and obligations—if you are a married dentist with five kids and you're paying off a mortgage, the pizza delivery boy may actually have a larger replenishable bankroll than you do.
I will leave it to you to figure out exactly how much of a replenishable bankroll you have, but here is the important distinction between a fixed bankroll and a replenishable one: A replenishable bankroll is a specified number of dollars that replenishes itself over a given time period. For instance: $300 per month, or $1,000 per week, or $52,000 per year. It does not include your life savings, or some amount of money you can borrow against your credit cards.
Compared to a fixed bankroll, a replenishable bankroll is an absolute joy for a card counter. With the replenishable variety, you can never go broke from negative flux. You may be put out of commission for the rest of the week, but come next month and a couple more paychecks, you're back in business.
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